Can the Knicks Beat the Pacers by Going Big?

by on May 6, 2013 in NBA

Knicks coach Mike Woodson commented after their Game 1 loss to the Pacers that he may try to use Kenyon Martin and Tyson Chandler together with Carmelo Anthony to counteract the Pacers size. On paper this sounds like a good idea. It would make it more difficult for the Pacers to score by putting a stronger defender on David West. It should also help Carmelo stay out of foul trouble. However, let’s dig into the lineup stats to see if this would really be a good idea for the Knicks.

The Knicks have primarily used Carmelo as the 4 in their lineups this season. In fact, only 356 total minutes (8% of the Knicks’ total minutes this year) included a lineup with Carmelo and 2 bigs on the court. In those 356 minutes the Knicks outscored opponents by 3.6 points per 48 minutes. In the 2193 total minutes with Carmelo at the 4 (51% of the Knicks’ total minutes) the Knicks outscored opponents by 5.6 points per 48 minutes. If we take Carmelo out of the equation and just look at the lineups that featured 2 traditional big men (regardless of whether Carmelo was included or not) the Knicks only outscored opponents by 0.6 points per 48 minutes.

Knicks Lineup Distribution throughout 2012-2013 Season

knicks_bigs

Overall, it looks like lineups with 2 big men has negatively impacted the Knicks, but how does that same comparison look against the Pacers specifically? It actually gets a lot worse. Playing with 2 bigs against the Pacers had led to the Knicks getting outscored by 23 points per 48 minutes. With Carmelo as the 3, the Knicks were outscored by 16 points in only 17.6 minutes which equates to being outscored by 43.6 points per 48 minutes.

knicks_vs_pacers

 

As a Pacers fan – I fully agree with Woodson’s idea to play Carmelo as the 3. If the Knicks employ that strategy in Game 2 I really like the Pacers chances of stealing a second road game in this series. If that happens I find it hard to imagine the Knicks coming out of an 0-2 hole when they have to play in Indianapolis 3 more times.

Leave a comment

Pacers Formula for Success in Atlanta – More Hibbert and West

by on May 3, 2013 in NBA

The Pacers have been miserable against the Hawks in Atlanta this playoff series – a continuation of the trend they’ve followed the last 5 seasons. The Pacers have lost their last 13 games in Atlanta even though they’ve had no problem against the Hawks at home. How can the Pacers avoid the pressure of Game 7 and wrap up the series tonight on the road? The simple answer is to maximize the amount of time David West and Roy Hibbert are on the court (especially on the court together).

In the 2 games in Atlanta this series the Pacers have been outscored by 44 points. The starting lineup clearly isn’t the problem. In the 37 minutes (39% of the total game time) the starting lineup has played they’ve outscored Atlanta by 5 points. That equates to a 6.5 point advantage over the course o 48 minutes. So the bench is the biggest culprit (as it has been for a while for the Pacers) for the Pacers’ struggles.

But take a look at the numbers with the combination of Hibbert and West on the court (only for games 3 in 4 in Atlanta). The Pacers dominate the game with their starting frontcourt. They’ve won their segments at a rate of nearly 8 points per 48 minutes. Coach Vogel shortened the bench a bit on Wednesday in Game 5 and played all the starters at least 34 minutes. It’s going to take that same kind of game management for the Pacers to close out the series on the road.

Pacers with Roy Hibbert and David West on Court in Atlanta

west-hibbert

Leave a comment

Is Ty Lawson Killing the Nuggets?

by on May 1, 2013 in NBA

I was looking into individual plus/minus stats for the playoffs I was shocked what I saw on Ty Lawson. During the regular season Lawson was solid. When he was on the court the Nuggets outscored opponents by 5.47 points per 48 minutes and that dropped to 4.35 points when Lawson was off the court.

Ty Lawson Regular Season

lawson_reg

 

However, when you take a look at those same on/off splits during the first 4 games of the 1st round series against the Warriors Lawson’s plus/minus numbers have fallen off a cliff.

Ty Lawson Playoffs (Games 1-4)

lawson_playoffs

 

I expected Andre Miller to be a big part of the drop off for Lawson, but that’s not the case. Miller has been better than Lawson, but still has had a negative overall impact. The Warriors have had a lot of success with their small lineups (with Jarrett Jack, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson all on the court together). This may be due to the fact that the Nuggets have tried to fight small with small. Maybe the answer is to play big and use Andre Iguodala and Corey Brewer as the main guards. Iguodala can handle the ball and has ran the point at times before. Plus Brewer and Iguodala are both outstanding defenders so they should be able to chase Curry and Thompson around the 3 point line. Iguodala, Brewer, and especially Kenneth Faried have all had outstanding plus/minus numbers for the Nuggets this series. Going completely big vs. the Warriors small lineups would be a delicious contrast of styles, and it’s worth a shot with the Warriors up 3-1.

 

Leave a comment