1. The top 5 picks are becoming more clear as we get closer to draft day
Although not everyone agrees, the majority opinion is that the top 5 will go like this:
Hornets – Anthony Davis
Bobcats – Thomas Robinson
Wizards – Bradley Beal
Cavaliers – Harrison Barnes
Kings – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
The Bobcats still haven’t decided on their guy at #2 so there’s a good chance this could all change. However, the Wizards seemed to show their card when they acquired SF Trevor Ariza and PF/C Emeka Okafor from the Hornets. They are clearly in need of a SG and Bradley Beal should be their pick if he’s still available. The Cavaliers have had their hearts set on Harrison Barnes since last year. I’d be surprised to see them pass him up. That leaves the Kings with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist who they would love to take. He fits in perfectly to their hole at SF. Other potential top 5 picks like Andre Drummond and Perry Jones have seen their stock fall during the last few weeks of workouts. In only 1 of the 14 mock drafts does someone different than those 5 get into the top 5 (Drummond).
2. Mid-Lottery SG’s and SF’s are Difficult to Project
There are a handful of guys in the 7-20 range of the draft that could really swing the rest of the draft. The wildcards seem to be:
Perry Jones: 7-21 range
Terrence Jones: 7-22 range
Dion Waiters: 7-19 range
Jeremy Lamb: 8-18 range
Terrence Ross: 7-21 range
Austin Rivers: 8-19 range
There’s not a lot of consensus on where these guys could land. They could get snapped up in the top 10, or they could fall all the way into the 20′s. How these dominoes fall could really change the way the 2nd half of the 1st round shapes up.
3. The 1st Round is Deep
There are a total of 23 players that are projected to go in the top 15 in at least one of the mock drafts. That’s good news for teams selecting in the 20-23 range because that means some highly sought after prospects are going to drop that far. A total of 42 players are projected in at least one mock to go in the 1st round. That looks good for the Cavaliers who have 2 early 2nd round picks.
4. Multiple 1st Round Picks Add Intrigue
6 teams (Trail Blazers, Hornets, Celtics, Cavaliers, Rockets, and Warriors) have 2 picks in the 1st round. This likely means 2 things: there’s a good chance we’ll see some trades involving these teams, and these teams are going to be looking more for a good fit and for complementary players rather than simply selecting the best player available. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of movement on draft night and the last few days leading up to the draft.
You can also check out my 2012 NBA Mock Draft
I’ve also built a spreadsheet that allows you to filter by player, team, and draft position to see what each of the mock drafts project. Access the NBA Mock Draft Spreadsheet here.
The sources I used for the Consensus Mock Draft are: