NFL Week 9 Matchup Predictions

Weekly matchups in the NFL can be very difficult to predict. There is a lot of parity in the league, and upsets are frequent. Often times you get an idea about certain teams stuck in your head based on past performance or certain nationally televised games that you saw that team play. Those biases can influence your thoughts in weekly pick-em or Eliminator leagues. Hopefully, this matchup tool can provide a data-driven aide to help you make your picks.

There are 3 sources of data that are being pulled together and an overall winner is determined by the team that wins the matchup in 2 or more of the comparisons. The 3 data sources are:

1. Vegas odds (via NFLodds.com)

2. Pro-Football-Reference Simple Rating System (listed as SRS in the weekly standings)

3. Average points per game based on each team’s average scoring and average points against. So, each team’s points per game are averaged against their opponents’ average points against to get a projected score for each team. Then the average score is compared (with 3 points given to the home team) to determine a winner.

Here are the week 9 predictions (scroll across for the overall winner and projected scores or open the full NFL Matchup Predictions spreadsheet here):

About Bryan Povlinski

Bryan is a Manager of Business Intelligence and Analytics for a fulfillment company in Indianapolis by day and the founder of Spreadsheet-Sports.com by night. He is a graduate of Indiana University, and enjoys applying his passion for analytics to sports. His favorite sports teams are the Indiana Hoosiers, North Carolina Tar Heels, Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Indianapolis Colts. Contrary to popular opinion, he hates pizza and loves spreadsheets.
4 comments
steveyoung5
steveyoung5

is there a new data sheet available?

sheetsports
sheetsports moderator

Yes...but most of the data that feeds the predictions is based on current season data. Simply using last season's stats wouldn't provide much predictive value for how team's are going to play this year. I should have the first one out during week 3.

steveyoung5
steveyoung5

are you doing this for this year 2013