Saturday 3-16 NBA Fanduel Analytics

By: Bryan Povlinski on March 16, 2013

Please see Introducing the Spreadsheet-Sports Daily Fantasy Sports Analytics System for more information on how these rankings work.

Top Overall Plays

1. LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge wasn’t playing at his usual level for the last week or two, but he’s picked it up over the last game or two and gets to face the Pistons who have no real defensive stopper without Drummond.

2. Paul Pierce – The Bobcats beat down the Celtics last week as Pierce sat out for a game of rest. I don’t expect the same result tonight and Pierce will likely be the main reason why. Especially if the game remains competitive throughout Pierce should have a big game.

3. Tim Duncan – Timmy erupted against the Mavericks on Thursday and now he gets a Cavaliers team on the second night of a back to back. On paper it’s a great matchup, but Pop may decide to limit Duncan’s minutes significantly if the Spurs jump out to a lead.

Best Value Plays

1. Jordan Crawford – Part of Crawford’s value is derived from the fact that he was one of the top scoring SG’s in the league early in the season. He’s clearly not in that situation anymore, but he’s getting minutes and he still has that explosive scoring ability.

2. Jonas Jerebko – He’s finally gotten a chance to prove himself in Detroit and he’s making the most of the opportunity. The only thing holding him back is his minutes allotment so hopefully it continues to increase.

3. Jason Terry – He provides the scoring punch off the bench for the Celtics and the Bobcats are fairly weak on defense so it could be a strong night for The Jet.

Trending Upward

1. J.J. Hickson – He’s been a double double machine lately for the Blazers. If he can sprinkle in a few blocks and steals he’s going to be one of the top center scorers.

2. Hamed Haddadi – He definitely doesn’t invoke confidence, but he’s been getting the backup center minutes for the Suns and he can rebound and block shots fairly well so he’s worth a flier if you don’t have much left to spend at center.

3. Eric Maynor – The Thunder cast him aside and gave him to the Blazers for a low draft pick, but he’s a talented playmaker and he can provide a spark for the Blazers when Lillard is on the bench.

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  • Bryan

    Lost again last night, need a big win tonight, down to 4 bucks in my account, would hate to have to go through the PayPal process. Need me a winner! What we got tonight?

    • ricky

      I don’t want to brag, but I’ve turned $10 into around $1200 in a little over three weeks now. Not loving tonight, lots of bad matchups/potential blowouts. Right now I’ve got…

      PG Wall
      PG Conley
      SG Matthews
      SG B Gordon
      SF Pierce
      SF P George
      PF Aldridge
      PF McRoberts
      C Hickson

      • Ed

        Can someone explain what the Adjustment Rankings means?
        Is this an order of ideal players who have had their minutes tweaked due to injuries, opponent defense vs position, and other stats?

        Thanks!

        • http://www.bryanpovlinski.com Bryan Povlinski

          Adjustment rankings is just a way to look players that have the biggest “adjustment” over their season average for the night. The adjustment value takes into consideration home/away, opponent, and last 5 games and produces a value that gets added onto the season average points per game to get the projection for the night. So the guys at the top of that list have the highest adjustment over their season average.

      • Ed

        ricky, can you explain the thinking behind some of your picks?
        Ben Gordon, Paul George – they’re both pretty medium value picks.

        thanks,
        Ed

        • ricky

          Ben Gordon is only $3800. If he hits 16 fanduel points I consider that a good night for his price. Anything more is a bonus. Look at his past games, been playing good minutes lately and always throws up a ton of shots.

        • ricky

          My lineups a little changed from earlier too.

  • Bryan

    Wall
    Conley
    Henderson
    Matthews
    Webster
    Pierce
    Aldridge
    McRoberts
    Hickson

    • ricky

      Wall
      Holiday
      Henderson
      Stuckey
      Webster
      J Green
      Aldridge
      Nene
      Hibbert

      • Bryan

        My other is

        Lillard
        Conley
        Henderson
        Waiters
        Webster
        Pierce
        Aldridge
        McRoberts
        Hibbert

      • Ed

        you’re doing something right…
        Stuckey, Webster, Wall, Hibbert, Aldridge all had huge games.

        This is my LU for Sunday:

        PG
        Russell Westbrook
        OKC @ DAL (Pre-game)
        PG
        Steve Nash
        LAL v SAC (Pre-game)
        SG
        Dwyane Wade
        MIA @ TOR (Pre-game)
        SG
        James Harden
        HOU v GS (Pre-game)
        SF
        Kevin Durant
        OKC @ DAL (Pre-game)
        SF
        John Salmons
        SAC @ LAL (Pre-game)
        PF
        Brandan Wright
        DAL v OKC (Pre-game)
        PF
        Donatas Motiejunas
        HOU v GS (Pre-game)
        C
        Greg Stiemsma
        MIN v NO (Pre-game)

        thoughts?